In the News

US / The number of American working was up by only 17,000

The headline

” Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent”, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

But the number of those working (SA) was up by only 17,000, after last month 28,000. This is by far not enough for a dent in the unemployment rate.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 12.3 million, was little changed in January. The unemployment rate was 7.9 percent and has been at or near that level since September 2012.

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

Choosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor from

bls

via Employment Situation Summary.

-*-

February jobs report: 157,000 new jobs.

The headline number out of today’s BLS jobs report is 157,000 new jobs. Not bad but not great. As ever, the better information is in the revisions to past months. Here we have November up to 247,000 (from 161,000) and December up to 196,000 (from 155,000). As revised those are both really solid months and good data estimates.

The bad news in this report, such as it is, is that the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9 percent. Except it really didn’t. You are going to see this misreported but here’s the deal. Each month the unemployment rate is calculated based on a survey of households. To do the household survey you need an estimate of the population universe you’re trying to survey. And each January they redo their population estimates. This estimates are not backward projected into the old data, meaning that from December 2012 to January 2013 you’re comparing different survey universes. A gigantic shift in the unemployment rate would swamp those estimation issues but that’s not what we saw. You can’t compare December’s 7.8 percent to January’s 7.9 percent except to say that there wasn’t much change.

The better news is that the payroll survey also did a rebenchmarking and found 422,000 missing jobs from last year. The last rebenchmarking from September also found almost 400,000 new jobs. That’s a recovery pattern—as the economy churns upward, initial estimates tend to undercount.

Slate

via February jobs report: 157,000 new jobs..

 

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