The 2011 Poverty Rate: What to Expect and How Long Will It Last? | Brookings Institution

The Center on Children and Families at Brookings has used a model for the past three years to predict the U.S. poverty rate before the official figure was released by the Census Bureau. As the table below shows, our track record is reasonably good although we caution that predictions are just that and can be wrong.

For the latest year (2011) we predict a rate of 15.5 percent for adults and 22.8 for children[1] (see accompanying figures below). On Sept. 12, 2012 the Census Bureau will release the actual numbers for 2011 and we will be able to compare them to our predictions.

The predicted poverty rate translates to 48.3 million people in poverty in 2011, an increase of 1.6 million people from 2010. For children, we predict an increase from 16.3 million children in poverty in 2010 to 16.9 million in 2011.

The rate for 2011 compares to 12.5 percent of the population that was in poverty in 2007 before the recession began. An increase of 3 percentage points represents over 10 million people, larger than the entire population of New York City.

Poverty rates have not been this high since the early 1960s before the War on Poverty began.

Looking beyond 2011, we predict a rate of 15.6 for 2012 and a rate that remains above 15 percent for the next four years. By 2020, the poverty rate is expected to decline to around 14 percent, but our analysis suggests it will be many years before it returns to anything approaching the rate achieved before the recession began. With cuts in social spending for lower-income families slated to occur over the next decade, the outlook for the poor looks grim…

via The 2011 Poverty Rate: What to Expect and How Long Will It Last? | Brookings Institution.