Academic Literature

This category contains 218 posts

Canada – Skills shortages have developed in certain fields and regions in recent years OECD finds

Skills shortages have developed in certain fields and regions in recent years. Earnings premiums for people in some professions, notably health, engineering and skilled trades have increased. And vacancy rates have risen for skilled trades, with the increase being particularly large in Alberta and Saskatchewan. While reforms have been implemented to strengthen adjustment so as … Continue reading

Polarization – The four middle skill occupations: 60 percent of employment in 1979, 46 percent in 2012

Cumulatively, these two trends of rapid employment growth in both high and low-­‐‑education jobs have substantially reduced the share of employment accounted for by ‘middle skill’ jobs. In 1979, the four middle skill occupations (sales, office and administrative workers, production workers, and operatives) accounted for 60 percent of employment. In 2007, this number was 49 … Continue reading

Participation in the US – The decline

Ageing and the workforce The largest single factor behind the decline is the ageing of the population. In order to understand how an ageing population affects overall labour force participation, it is helpful to look at the participation rates of different age groups. Figures 2 and 3 show the participation rate profiles for men and … Continue reading

Workplace Stress in US

Despite relative affluence, workplace stress is a prominent feature of the US labour market. To the extent that job stress causes poor health outcomes – either directly through increased blood pressure, fatigue, muscle pain, etc. or indirectly through increased rates of cigarette smoking – policy to lessen job stress may be appropriate. Focusing predominantly on … Continue reading

Inflation and Unemployment in US – The flattening of the Phillips curve

I’m thinking about the rest of us, starting at the top—with the Fed—who are struggling to figure out the nature of the tradeoff as the Fed begins to contemplate unwinding.  Given Chair Yellen’s (very appropriate) focus on job-market slack and thus her up-weighting of the full employment side of the mandate, there’s clearly some anxiety … Continue reading

US – The short-term unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession average, so what ?

Because the short-term unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession average, one important implication—if the hypothesis that the long-term unemployed are largely on the margins of the labor market is correct—is that further declines in short-term unemployment would be expected to be associated with rising inflation and stronger real wage growth. So has this trend … Continue reading

China – Unemployment and labour shortage co-exist

Why do labour shortage and high unemployment co-exist in China? I analysed this in my book. More specifically, I explored the matching efficiency in the labour market by estimating the matching function between job offers and job seekers in urban labour markets in China based on search and matching theory. Figure 3 shows the values … Continue reading

Involuntary Part-time Employment in US

As the economy continues its recovery from the Great Recession, we expect the number of those working part time for economic reasons to fall. However, it is probable that the ratio of PTER to unemployment will continue to increase as it has historically done. That is because, during the recoveries, the number of unemployed people … Continue reading

Globalisation – Average income increased, but the gains were concentrated among employees of large exporting firms study finds

How does increased openness to international trade affect workers’ wages and job security? This question is central to the public debate concerning the effects of globalisation, but convincing quantitative answers have been difficult to come by. Trade liberalisations are often accompanied by labour market reforms, making it difficult to isolate their effects. This column discusses … Continue reading

Canada – Aging population could have a positive effect on the labour market outcomes of youth research finds

Post-recession it is common to hear concerns that youth, facing high unemployment rates, are unable to find good job opportunities. Historically, youth have experienced higher unemployment rates than older workers. In the context of an aging workforce dominated by the baby boom generation and delayed retirement, there appears a general concern that older workers are … Continue reading

Mobility in Canada – Infrastructure tradespersons are no more likely to have migrated from another province or region

In 2011, “infrastructure tradespersons” aged 25 to 44 were no more likely to have migrated from another province or region than those who had other types of postsecondary credentials. Infrastructure tradespersons are defined as those who had a certification in trades and whose major field of study was in construction trades, mechanics and repair, precision production, or heavy equipment machinery … Continue reading

US – Hours worked for the three underperforming sectors—manufacturing, construction, and information—remain well below their pre-Great Recession levels

The three charts show hours worked for the largest sectors in the economy, grouped by performance relative to pre-Great Recession levels. These data provide insight into current sources of slack in the labor market. The Great Recession took a severe toll on total hours worked across all of these sectors. Excluding the education and health services … Continue reading

US – The 2009 Recovery Act directly created and saved jobs primarily in government finds St. Louis Fed

Over one-half of the fiscal spending component of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ARRA; i.e., the Recovery Act was allocated via grants, loans, and contracts. Businesses, nonprofits, and nonfederal government agencies that received this type of stimulus funding were required to report the number of jobs directly created and saved as a result of … Continue reading

Overeducation in US – 66% of workers remaining overeducated after one year research finds

In their paper The career prospects of overeducated Americans, (Preliminary version) @ unc.edu Brian Clark, Clément Joubert and Arnaud Maurel analyze career dynamics for the substantial share of U.S. workers who are deemed overeducated in the literature. They use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 combined with the pooled 1989-1991 waves of the … Continue reading

Unemployment and Wages in the US – Long-term unemployed should not be strongly discounted from measures of slack research finds

Some have argued that the unemployment rate may overestimate labor market slack, because the long-term unemployed (LTU) are largely structurally unemployed and exert significantly less wage and price pressure. If so, then using the aggregate unemployment rate to forecast wage or price inflation may be misleading.  However, this Note, along with the companion note showing … Continue reading

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