Academic Literature

This category contains 214 posts

Inflation and Unemployment in US – The flattening of the Phillips curve

I’m thinking about the rest of us, starting at the top—with the Fed—who are struggling to figure out the nature of the tradeoff as the Fed begins to contemplate unwinding.  Given Chair Yellen’s (very appropriate) focus on job-market slack and thus her up-weighting of the full employment side of the mandate, there’s clearly some anxiety … Continue reading

US – The short-term unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession average, so what ?

Because the short-term unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession average, one important implication—if the hypothesis that the long-term unemployed are largely on the margins of the labor market is correct—is that further declines in short-term unemployment would be expected to be associated with rising inflation and stronger real wage growth. So has this trend … Continue reading

China – Unemployment and labour shortage co-exist

Why do labour shortage and high unemployment co-exist in China? I analysed this in my book. More specifically, I explored the matching efficiency in the labour market by estimating the matching function between job offers and job seekers in urban labour markets in China based on search and matching theory. Figure 3 shows the values … Continue reading

Involuntary Part-time Employment in US

As the economy continues its recovery from the Great Recession, we expect the number of those working part time for economic reasons to fall. However, it is probable that the ratio of PTER to unemployment will continue to increase as it has historically done. That is because, during the recoveries, the number of unemployed people … Continue reading

Globalisation – Average income increased, but the gains were concentrated among employees of large exporting firms study finds

How does increased openness to international trade affect workers’ wages and job security? This question is central to the public debate concerning the effects of globalisation, but convincing quantitative answers have been difficult to come by. Trade liberalisations are often accompanied by labour market reforms, making it difficult to isolate their effects. This column discusses … Continue reading

Canada – Aging population could have a positive effect on the labour market outcomes of youth research finds

Post-recession it is common to hear concerns that youth, facing high unemployment rates, are unable to find good job opportunities. Historically, youth have experienced higher unemployment rates than older workers. In the context of an aging workforce dominated by the baby boom generation and delayed retirement, there appears a general concern that older workers are … Continue reading

Mobility in Canada – Infrastructure tradespersons are no more likely to have migrated from another province or region

In 2011, “infrastructure tradespersons” aged 25 to 44 were no more likely to have migrated from another province or region than those who had other types of postsecondary credentials. Infrastructure tradespersons are defined as those who had a certification in trades and whose major field of study was in construction trades, mechanics and repair, precision production, or heavy equipment machinery … Continue reading

US – Hours worked for the three underperforming sectors—manufacturing, construction, and information—remain well below their pre-Great Recession levels

The three charts show hours worked for the largest sectors in the economy, grouped by performance relative to pre-Great Recession levels. These data provide insight into current sources of slack in the labor market. The Great Recession took a severe toll on total hours worked across all of these sectors. Excluding the education and health services … Continue reading

US – The 2009 Recovery Act directly created and saved jobs primarily in government finds St. Louis Fed

Over one-half of the fiscal spending component of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ARRA; i.e., the Recovery Act was allocated via grants, loans, and contracts. Businesses, nonprofits, and nonfederal government agencies that received this type of stimulus funding were required to report the number of jobs directly created and saved as a result of … Continue reading

Overeducation in US – 66% of workers remaining overeducated after one year research finds

In their paper The career prospects of overeducated Americans, (Preliminary version) @ unc.edu Brian Clark, Clément Joubert and Arnaud Maurel analyze career dynamics for the substantial share of U.S. workers who are deemed overeducated in the literature. They use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 combined with the pooled 1989-1991 waves of the … Continue reading

Unemployment and Wages in the US – Long-term unemployed should not be strongly discounted from measures of slack research finds

Some have argued that the unemployment rate may overestimate labor market slack, because the long-term unemployed (LTU) are largely structurally unemployed and exert significantly less wage and price pressure. If so, then using the aggregate unemployment rate to forecast wage or price inflation may be misleading.  However, this Note, along with the companion note showing … Continue reading

US – Highly educated immigrants raise native wages

mmigrants to the US are drawn from both ends of the education spectrum. This column looks at the effect of highly educated immigrants – in particular, those with degrees in Science, Technology, Engineering, or Mathematics – on total factor productivity growth. The authors find that foreign STEM workers can explain 30% to 60% of US … Continue reading

Keynes argued that slumps can happen because of declining wage

‘New-Keynesian’ models use sticky prices and downward rigidity of nominal wages to get ‘Keynesian’ results: during slumps, low interest rates, money growth and additional expenditure (not necessarily government expenditure) can heal the economy and lower unemployment without inflationary consequences. The name ‘New-Keynesian’ is however a double travesty. Not because prices aren’t sticky (many are) or … Continue reading

US – A study on the effects of military service on earnings and education

Estimating the effect of military service is complicated by the fact that veterans are likely to differ from nonveterans in ways that are correlated with subsequent economic outcomes but are not observable to the researcher. This report builds on earlier work to understand how military service affects earnings, especially how these effects differ by the … Continue reading

US – Workers have slowed their transitions between employers St. Louis Fed finds

Jobs in the U.S. labor market get turned over at a surprising frequency, with flows into/out of unemployment being almost four times faster than in Germany, despite similar unemployment rates.1 But when U.S. workers leave jobs, they are twice as likely to go directly into another one as become unemployed.2 These job-to-job transitions make up … Continue reading

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